Don’t Kid Yourself: Online Lectures Are Here to Stay

Another signature feature of a winner-take-all market is the so-called Matthew Effect. The sociologist Robert Merton coined the term, referring to a verse in the Book of Matthew: “For unto everyone that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance; but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.” As a leading producer expands its market share, additional revenues enable it to further refine the offering that made it a leader. The revenue from its early lead helped Intuit add the ability to process state tax returns, which extended that lead.

Sometimes the Matthew Effect is a simple matter of a particular supplier’s becoming part of a product’s identity. Daisy Ridley is clearly a talented performer, but before the director J.J. Abrams cast her as Rey in “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” hundreds of other candidates might have seemed equally promising. Once the film became a box-office bonanza, her lock on the role was virtually unbreakable .

The Matthew Effect and related positive-feedback processes have driven some of the biggest success stories of the internet era. Google dominates search because the more queries the company processes, the more effective its algorithms become. And despite criticism and competition, Facebook dominates social media because the more members a network has, the more useful it becomes as a place for people to interact.

Similar feedback effects are poised to reshape the market for academic instruction. The move to remote course offerings had been happening slowly, fueled in part by chronic budgetary shortfalls at many colleges and universities. But because the pandemic has greatly amplified those cost pressures, it will accelerate the transition. And although the average quality of remote instruction has been low, the sheer scale of recent efforts has sped the discovery of ways to improve it.

Like tax preparation software, a large number of remote courses will compete for reviewer and student approval during the early going. And similarly, a handful of contestants will eventually be judged as best.

  • Updated June 5, 2020

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      Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.

    • My state is reopening. Is it safe to go out?

      States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.

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      Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.

    • What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

      Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.

    • How can I protect myself while flying?

      If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)

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    • What should I do if I feel sick?

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Economies of scale are the driving force here. Most of the costs of delivering remote courses are fixed, which means that costs per student fall sharply with volume. The cost of producing a first-rate instructional video is the same, for example, no matter how many students view it. The only additional expense of expanding remote courses would be the hiring of local graduate teaching assistants.

As the leading remote offerings are more widely adopted, the additional revenues will fuel further improvements in quality. Over time, the most successful remote courses will enjoy a growing cost advantage, since their expense per student declines as more people use them.

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