Russia Invasion of Ukraine to Drag Economy Back 15 Years: IIF Experts

• A report from the Institute of International Finance was bleak on the Russia economy.
• Its experts said backlash from the invasion of Ukraine, plus sanctions, will drag it back 15 years.
• Global firms have abandoned Russia in recent months, and Europe is trying to abandon Russian energy.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will wipe out 15 years of economic growth in Russia, according to an influential association of finance experts.

The prediction was made by the Institute of International Finance, a collective made of representatives from global finance firms. It was reported Wednesday by the Reuters news agency.

The group cited several repercussions from the invasion that would hit Russia’s finances hard. It estimated the damage would drag the economy back to around its size in 2007.

The main three were:

• Companies pulling out of Russia and laying off workers.
• A collapse in exports thanks to sanctions.
• Talented Russians leaving the country.

The group predicted that Russia’s economy would contract by 15% in 2022 and a further 3% in 2023.

—IIF (@IIF) June 8, 2022

It said the picture could become even worse for Russia depending on how quickly countries in Europe make good on their plan to stop consuming Russian oil and gas.

The EU agreed to stop around 90% of Russian oil imports by the end of the year, but has said that stopping natural-gas imports from Russia would take much longer.

Russia is teetering on the brink of a historic debt default as it has encountered more and more difficulties in paying its foreign creditors after having been cut out of the financial system. Domestic capital controls have shored up its currency, but with demand for energy declining in many parts of the world, it’s had to offer fuel at huge discounts, particularly crude oil.

The IIF report acknowledged that Russian receipts from imports actually increased after the invasion, thanks largely to rising energy prices.

But its experts said Russia would feel only a short-lived benefit from that phenomenon, and that its isolation from Western markets would be far more significant and erode its economy.