Famed hedge fund Bridgewater predicts the coronavirus will lead to $4 trillion in lost corporate revenue for both public and private businesses in the U.S., according to a report the firm published Friday.
“That is a very dangerous decline, and if not mitigated, it will lead to a long-lasting ripple,” said the Bridgewater team who authored the research report.
In Bridgewater’s model, companies will have a shortfall of $2 trillion “concentrated in energy and travel and leisure, and about equally divided between large and small companies.”
The firm projects a 6% decline in US GDP for 2020, with the biggest hit during the second quarter.
The firm also estimates a decline of $12 trillion for global businesses in 2020.
“Since this hit to revenues is happening throughout the world, the total hole globally will be roughly three times that—about $12 trillion. Governments are responding, of course, but in most cases these responses will just mitigate some of the ripple. Governments’ capacities to deal with this hit vary greatly and will be a major driver of markets going forward.”
“Many companies will try to fill this gap by drawing credit lines, increasing their debt positions,” said the investors.
If government policies don’t help fill the gap, companies are likely to dramatically cut spending, which would result in meaningful cuts in employment.
Ray Dalio, who founded Bridgewater, is famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis.